State Polls Recap: Key Highlights and Major Insights !
- Abhinav Shukla
- Dec 8, 2023
- 8 min read
It's the end of the year and the end of the election season for the political parties, at least until the next year when the General Elections are scheduled to be held.
The announcement of poll results , in the context to the elections held in five states - Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, and Telangana - has promising implications for the current ruling party, BJP. This outcome ensures their dominance and control over state politics, contrary to their position in 2018 when they lost three states - Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. The BJP has now re-claimed these lost territories by sweeping the Hindi Heartland. INC won Telangana, defeating its [Telengana's] own regional party, Bhartiya Rashtriya Samiti (BRS), which came as a stunner for BRS. In Mizoram, Zoram's People Movement defeated Mizo National Front to secure a majority in the state legislative election.
The electoral verdict by the janta contradicted almost all the exit polls, which indicated a balanced contest between BJP and INC in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. Some exit polls even suggested the possibility of the contest being so close that defectors would play a significant role in determining which party forms the government while others depicted an advantage for the INC with a margin of 5-12 seats, securing a majority for them to form the government. However, this is not a criticism/rant to the agencies responsible for conducting surveys, as it's a scientific model based on structured questionnaires and sample sizes, aiming to predict -- the mood of the people and their inclination towards parties.
Now, let's delve into the politics of each state and analyze the factors contributing to the election outcomes.
Chhattisgarh:
The gravity of the election results can be measured by the fact that Deputy CM TS Singh Deo, Minister of Backward Classes and Minorities Welfare (crucial in Chhattisgarh politics owing to its tribal and backward voter base) and other ministers lost elections. Congress saw a reduction in seats from 71 to 35. Although , Bhupesh Baghel won his constituency with a significant margin, he lost the CM KI KURSI due to his haughtiness that there is no wave against him. His ignorance towards tribal seats, vote share division due to other regional/smaller parties which affected his party unfavourably , and corruption charges especially his alleged connection to the Mahadev Betting Case, where Subham Soni accused Baghel of taking Rs. 508 crore as hush money, played a pivotal role. Taking a dig at Baghel, Union Minister Anurag Thakur said, "Mahadev Ka Shraap, Congress Saaf. "
Can't claim who will head the govt. but Raman Singh [ex-Cm] appears as a doubtful candidate , maybe a new face for the state - a new beginning.
Rajasthan:
In my opinion, Sachin Pilot would be as happy as the BJP, as Rajasthan Congress under the leadership of CM Ashok Gehlot, failed to attain a majority.
Pilot, who aspires to become the Chief Minister of the State, had one obstacle to his goal—Ashok Gehlot. The dispute between them became evident during the five-year tenure, with Gehlot publicly insulting Pilot with words like "useless" and "ineffective and inefficient." Pilot's removal from the post of deputy CM and his dismissal from Rajasthan Congress President in 2020, along with his constant rogue behaviour towards the party, to show his strength as a politician. Gehlot's constant fear of Pilot and his supporters defecting to topple his government became apparent. Nevertheless, they resolved their differences (at least that's what they said) before the campaign started.
There was strong anti-incumbency against the sitting MLAs of Congress due to their alleged involvement in different corrupt practices and criminal cases. However, when the candidate lists was circulated, these same MLAs were contesting the elections. This failure to remove unpopular candidates proved to be lethal for the INC. Even though Ashok Gehlot was a popular face in the state, his MLAs cost him the government.
For BJP, it was expected - Ex-CM Vasundhara Raje to stand against Gehlot as a traditional rival. Still, memories from 2018, "Vasundhra teri khair nahi, Modi tujhse bair nahi" led BJP to go without a CM face and fight on the Modi factor, as the Prime Minister has a stronghold in the Hindi Heartland.
Raje's previous years tussle with BJP high command makes her an unlikely candidate for the CM post , having said that - BJP has achieved a good margin of majority over the opposition which makes them comfortable to look for another politician. Most probable choice would be Gajendra Singh Shekhawat if Raje doesn't veto as she did when his name was discussed for party president back in 2017 or the high command would ignore her veto [which comes with consequences]. Yet , if she is chosen as the one , she might not complete full term . [I feel]
Telangana:
It is catastrophic when a regional party loses in its own state, as was the case for Bhartiya Rashtriya Samiti (BRS)—the same party responsible for the creation of the new state, Telangana. The party that was at the forefront of demanding a separate state with Hyderabad as its capital lost.
Many blame CM KCR's arrogance and ignorance towards its people. KCR , a few months back was looking at national-level prospects and even promised to fund I.N.D.I.A campaign. KCR's daughter's connection in a liquor scam, which is under scrutiny by ED, brought damage to his image. BJP’s KVR Reddy emerged as a dark horse by defeating both BRS CM Chandrashekar and Congress’s Revanth Reddy, who is now crowned as the new CM. The story of Revanth Reddy is also very interesting— he started his politics as a student leader with ABVP, later joined Telugu Desam Party (TDP), and then moved to Congress in 2017. He led the campaign for Congress against KCR, was jailed multiple times, and even had to take bail to attend his daughter's wedding.
INC's victory in Telangana also stems from the momentum after Congress won Karnataka earlier this year. This gave confidence to the cadre to pull off a victory , not ignoring funds with confidence.
Madhya Pradesh:
Shivraj Singh didn't let down his sisters, and so did his sisters, not let down Shivraj Singh.
If you are puzzled, it's the success of "LADLI BEHENA YOJANA," which has worked wonders for Shivraj and BJP in Madhya Pradesh. A women-centric scheme that promises economic empowerment along gender lines. In addition , BJP's Sankalp Patra promises to increase the minimum support price (MSP) of wheat and paddy and provide LPG cylinders at subsidized rates. However , crediting a single scheme for the success of a jan-leader like Shivraj Singh Chauhan who has served as a Union Minister under Vajpayee govt. for 4 years and subsequently , the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh for 15 years would be unfair to the decorated political career - he has achieved.
After 2018 state polls , Congress formed the govt.with a narrow margin , ending Shivraj's reign after 13 years of his leadership. Kamalnath took the oath to become the Chief Minister whereas Jyotiraditya Scindia who at that time was expecting the either the position of chief minister or the congress state presidentship , didn't get either of them - as both was given to Kamalnath. Then , started a systematic sidelining from two veterans of MP Congress - Kamalnath and Digvijay Singh. After which he was looking for a centre-level responsibilty , maybe in organization or a rajyasabha seat - after not getting the latter one - he decided to topple the Kamalnath govt. by resigning along with 22 other MLAs.
He left Congress to join BJP - to reward his act of toppling , BJP assigned him Ministry of Civil Aviation when the union cabinet was reshuffled.
Coming back to Shivraj Singh Chauhan , he was once again sworn to be the chief minister.
Mamaji , as known as in his state faced a dilemma regarding his image - Yogi Adityanath , CM of adjoining state Uttar Pradesh had a hard hindutva image and Shivraj Singh tried to implement the same hindutva card but it didn't quite suit him as he was widely criticized for bulldozer politics for which Yogi was not. Nevertheless , he returned to his roots of policy-orientated administration and social reformer mode which helped him win the elections.
Shivraj will be the most probable option as it is , in his leadership under BJP has won.
Other Observations -
Freebie Culture:
PM Modi has criticized the opposition for promising freebies ( revdi culture, as PM likes to call it ) to voters, terming it as a dangerous practice in our electoral campaigns. However, this time, BJP itself has promised freebies to the voters. Whether it's BJP in Rajasthan and MP, or AAP in Delhi and Punjab, or INC in Karnataka—freebies are one of the major reasons for their victories. However, freebies are termed as a means of public welfare by the political parties - every party needs to consider fiscal limitations and how much they can give to the people for free! Many state governments take loans, burdening the central government's financial deposits —a bad sign for the Indian Economy.
North v/s South Divide:
Shortly after the results were announced, social media platforms and other media outlets were flooded with similar tweets differentiating the South from the North in a negative way. BJP's victory in the Hindi Heartland prompted critics to spread some sort of toolkit with a narrative aimed at dividing the North and South regions of our country.
After the son of TN CM, Udhayanidhi Stalin, called for the eradication of Sanatan Dharma, one of the DMK MPs in the ongoing Lok Sabha winter session labeled individuals from North India as "gaumutra drinkers" in a derogatory manner.
The mere victory of BJP in these states led these so-called intellectuals to label the voters of these states as dumb, less civilized, and illiterate. This divisive agenda has no relevance, as it is posed as a distraction by the opposition bloc to vent out frustration over the poll results, indicating their inability to accept the mandate of the janta, which has not been in their favor. This hatred and illogical narrative are just another propaganda to derail the public from actual issues. The claim of a BJP-mukt South can be punctured by the simple fact that the majority of MPs coming from the South belong to the BJP.
Conclusion -
The overconfidence exhibited by Kamal Nath in MP and Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh cost the Congress. While they gained in one state, they lost in another. The Congress, as observed before, lacks clarity, a cohesive agenda, and effective leadership. Surveys conducted three months before the elections indicated that Shivraj was trailing in MP, prompting a desperate response from the BJP, leading them to send their MPs and Union Cabinet Ministers to contest state elections. Losing head-on battles with considerable or huge margins is more of a loss for Congress than a triumph for the BJP.
The I.N.D.I.A alliance needs to strategize before the 2024 elections, at least as a test-run in these major states, but it failed to seize the opportunity. While no one expects them to miraculously win the elections, causing maximum damage to the BJP machinery would be a significant achievement. This could create consensus within the I.N.D.I.A bloc and instill hope among party cadres that they can perform better than they did in 2019.
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